Ask Sophie: What’s the wait time for EB-2 and EB-1 inexperienced card classes for these born in India?

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Expensive Sophie,

Again in 2018, the Cato Institute estimated it will take 151 years for an individual born in India to get a inexperienced card within the EB-2 class.

How has that modified within the wake of the pandemic, the Nice Resignation, and the tech layoffs? How has the EB-1 class modified?

— Dwelling in Limbo

Expensive Dwelling,

Thanks for reaching out to me! I bear in mind the Cato Institute report and have lengthy puzzled the identical factor. As you identified, so much has occurred since that report was issued in 2018. 😁

Earlier than we dive into the wait instances for the EB-2 and EB-1 inexperienced card classes, let’s undergo a refresher relevant to everyone on how employment-based inexperienced playing cards are allotted.

Inexperienced card refresher

Not less than 140,000 employment-based inexperienced playing cards can be found in the beginning of every fiscal yr, which begins on October 1. If any family-based inexperienced card numbers from the earlier fiscal yr had been unused, they’re added to the employment-based inexperienced card complete.

Every employment-based inexperienced card class is allotted a minimal of the whole annual cap: The EB-1 (first choice for precedence employees), EB-2 (second choice for a complicated diploma or distinctive capability) and EB-3 (third choice for expert employees) classes are allotted a minimal of 28.6% of the whole annual cap. The EB-4 (particular immigrants) and EB-5 (investor immigrants) classes have a minimal of seven.1% of the annual cap.

Every employment-based inexperienced card class additionally has a per-country cap of seven%. This cover is predicated on a person’s nation of start (not nation of citizenship). People born in India and China are at a drawback for the reason that demand for inexperienced playing cards from candidates born in these two nations far exceeds the variety of inexperienced playing cards out there to them.

If any EB-4 or EB-5 inexperienced card numbers should not used, they are going to be moved to the EB-1 inexperienced card class. If any EB-1 inexperienced card numbers should not used, they are going to be allotted to the EB-2 class, and if any EB-2 inexperienced card numbers should not used (which has not been the case for a number of years), the remaining will go to the EB-3 class.

How has the wait time modified for EB-2?

I typically reference two important sorts of EB-2 class inexperienced playing cards: the EB-2 and the EB-2 NIW (Nationwide Curiosity Waiver). The EB-2 requires an employer sponsor to file for the time-consuming PERM labor certification course of earlier than submitting the EB-2 software to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Companies (USCIS).

The EB-2 NIW requires demonstrating that the beneficiary’s work and skills are within the curiosity of the U.S. to waive the PERM labor certification course of. You possibly can self-petition for the EB-2 NIW or an employer can sponsor you for it.

One factor has remained constant since July 2007: The EB-2 class for people born in India (and China, too!) has had a cutoff date. Meaning there haven’t been sufficient EB-2 inexperienced card numbers for these authorized for an EB-2. In keeping with the Visa Bulletin for September 2023, the cutoff date within the EB-2 class for people born in India was January 1, 2011. For people born in China, it was July 8, 2019, and for people in all different nations, it was July 1, 2023.

The chart beneath exhibits the EB-2 wait instances for people born in India since 2018. I used information from the USCIS, the U.S. Division of Homeland Safety (which oversees the USCIS), and the U.S. Division of State, which oversees consular processing and points the month-to-month Visa Bulletin.

Within the chart, the projected wait time of 106 years in 2018 for people born in India is decrease than the Cato Institute’s 151-year estimate. That’s as a result of the Cato Institute report, which was issued in June 2018, used the most recent information out there on the time, which was from FY2016 and FY2017. I used FY2018 information.

The projected EB-2 wait time hit a excessive of 221 years, however that’s as a result of shutdown of all in-person providers in March 2020 on the USCIS and at U.S. embassies and consulates, in addition to a hiring freeze, which created important backlogs.

Throughout 2021 and 2022, most U.S. embassies and consulate places of work remained closed or had restricted operations, which meant many household inexperienced playing cards went unused since most household inexperienced card candidates dwell outdoors the U.S. This considerably benefited employment-based inexperienced card candidates, most of whom are already dwelling and dealing within the U.S. on a piece visa.